USGS forecasts 44% of Florida’s west coast to experience inundation from Helene

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) experts project that Hurricane Helene, expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast on September 26, 2024, will bring significant coastal change.

According to the newly-updated USGS coastal change forecast, 44% of the sandy beaches on Florida’s west coast may become inundated – meaning continuously covered by ocean water – from Helene.

This number dropped from a previous forecast of 94% of beachfront being inundated, after an update in Helene’s projected path.

Inundation is the most severe level of coastal change and can cause flooding behind sand dunes that may impact coastal communities.

USGS experts estimate Helene’s waves and surge have the potential to cause 100% of all ocean-facing beaches in Florida to experience erosion and 95% to experience overwash.

Overwash occurs when water levels reach higher than the top of dunes. When a beach is overwashed, sand can be pushed and deposited inland, causing significant changes to coastal landscapes and blocking roadways.

Overwash can reduce the height of protective sand dunes, alter beach profiles, and leave areas behind the dunes more vulnerable to future storms.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Helene may bring life-threatening storm surge along with hurricane-force winds and heavy rain.

This USGS coastal change forecast for Helene is a worst-case scenario that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.